Big Ten - a very early 2010-11 preview

5/21/2010

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Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Michigan State
  2. Purdue
  3. Ohio State
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Illinois
  6. Minnesota
  7. Northwestern
  8. Indiana
  9. Penn State
  10. Michigan
  11. Iowa
The Big Ten looks loaded this year. A quick look at the all-conference teams below shows that this is a very experienced conference (eight seniors and a junior on my all-conference squads), and with a 09-10 Final Four team (Michigan State) and a team that was a key injury away from being a Final Four contender (Purdue) returns almost all of their key contributors, clearly the top of the heap here is very talented. Given those two squad’s past success and key returnees, they are the co-favorites in the league with the Spartans getting a bit of a nod due to slightly fewer question marks.

However, the next tier of teams, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois, will likely be right on the heels of the leaders all season long. Ohio State and Illinois both feature intriguing mixes of returning experience and incoming talent, while Wisconsin is Wisconsin and you can pencil them in for about 12 conference wins and 25 wins on the season today.

Those top two tiers in the league are the teams that should be fairly comfortable on Selection Sunday with their lot; the next tier (Minnesota and Northwestern) is made up of teams who could be a little nervous that day. An early guess? Both teams get in.

And then there’s the bottom tier, teams that are either rebuilding or should be rebuilding. Penn State and Indiana both have some players that could carry their teams at times, but lack the overall roster to compete for an upper-division finish in such a talented league. Michigan could finish higher just on the strength of John Bielein and his system, but Iowa, poor Iowa and new head coach Fran McCaffrey, could have a rough season with a remade roster and a program starting all over from scratch.

All-Big Ten First Team
G Kalin Lucas, Sr, Michigan State
G Talor Battle, Sr, Penn State
F Mike Davis, Sr, Illinois
F Jon Leuer, Sr, Wisconsin
C Jared Sullinger, Fr, Ohio State

All-Big Ten Second Team
G E’Twaun Moore, Sr, Purdue
G William Buford, Jr, Ohio State
F Robbie Hummel, Sr, Purdue
F Kevin Coble, Sr, Northwestern
C JaJuan Johnson, Sr, Purdue

All-Freshman Team
G Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan
G Roy Marble Jr., Iowa
F Jereme Richmond, Illinois
F DeShaun Thomas, Ohio State
C Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

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Michigan State - a far too early 2010-11 preview

5/9/2010

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In 2009-10, the Spartans started the season with high expectations, a top five ranking, co-favorites in the Big Ten and a ton of returning talent. While they struggled along for much of the season, come April, they were right there were Tom Izzo often gets his team: the Final Four. As the Spartans look ahead to 2010-11, there are a lot of the same high expectations but still enough question marks to make it interesting. Senior point guard Kalin Lucas will have to recover from the torn Achilles’ he suffered in the Tournament and junior power forward Delvon Roe will undergo another offseason knee surgery. But assuming they can both get over their health hurdles, they will again be surrounded by some talented players.

Junior guard Korie Lucious will likely fill Lucas’ shoes at the point if Lucas is not ready to go at the start of the season, and will spell Lucas when he does return to the lineup. Seniors Chris Allen and Durrell Summers will start at the two and the three, with junior Austin Thornton and incoming freshmen Russell Byrd and Keith Appling providing backcourt depth. Byrd is a shooter on the wing, while Appling is more of a penetrating scoring guard, who could run some point from time to time if needed.

Up front, if Roe ever does return to full health, he’ll be a monster on a nationals scale: a scarily athletic, smart and tenacious front court player with skills that he has only barely begun to show. Junior Draymond Green is another skilled front court player, who may slide into the starting lineup replacing the departed Raymar Morgan, or could continue to play the sixth-man role off the bench. Derrick Nix may again get the starting nod at the center position in his sophomore year, but will likely get more than the just eight minutes per game he saw as a freshman. Likewise, fellow sophomore Garrick Sherman should see an uptick in minutes, and knowing Izzo, senior center Tom Herzog will also get some minutes here and there. All three of those players will have to fight for minutes, however, as reinforcements arrive in the shape of 6-10 freshman center Adreian Payne, a raw physical specimen, and 6-9 freshman big man Alex Gauna, a versatile post-player.

Certainly Michigan State will be one of the Final Four favorites again next year, and depending on the NBA draft decisions of some of Purdue’s key players, will either be the sole favorite in the Big Ten or the co-favorite with the Boilermakers. But, as has been their custom, don’t expect Izzo and the Spartans to really round into form until March, when they should be as tough an out as ever.

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